NBA Preview 2011-12 (Part Two)

Here's part two of my NBA preview, covering the Western Conference. Click here for part one on the East.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: So many people hopped on this team’s bandwagon in 2010 when the Thunder gave the eventual champion Lakers everything they could handle in the first round. It’s somewhat perplexing that there isn’t quite as much hype this year on the heels of a trip to the conference finals, where Oklahoma City lost again to the eventual champs. If the Thunder makes a similar improvement in 2012, it will win the title. While the climb gets steeper at this level, there’s little reason not to favor Oklahoma City to at least win the West. The Mavs and Lakers both lost key components, and the Spurs, Grizzlies and Clippers are wild cards. The Thunder has stability and youth, and they go 10-deep, assets that the compressed schedule will magnify.

2. Memphis Grizzlies: Their place as the No. 2 team in the West would be a lot more secure if they hadn’t lost Darrell Arthur for the season. Still, injuries will happen to just about every team, and if the worst injury of the season happens to someone who doesn’t start, it’s not damning. The Grizzlies proved last year that they’re capable over overcoming injury, as Rudy Gay, arguably their best player, was absent for their shocking playoff run. They won’t catch anyone by surprise this year, but they don’t have to. The post games of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol were not built on subtlety, and as long as Randolph is plugged in, there’s little reason to expect Memphis won’t pick up where it left off last year.

3. Los Angeles Clippers: They’re the team everyone wants to see this year, and as they establish themselves as one of the elite teams in the West, the enthusiasm will only grow. They seem ripe for at least one more deal, as it would seem illogical to keep four point guards who could all conceivably start in this league, especially when Randy Foye is the best pure shooting guard they have. Still, it’s hard not to get excited about how Chris Paul and an improving Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan will mesh together. Caron Butler was an expensive signing, but he does seem like the proper fit as a steady veteran at small forward.

4. Dallas Mavericks: Tyson Chandler was the keystone of the team’s defense in last year’s championship season, and his loss hurts. The Mavs shed plenty of critical role players from last year, too, as DeShawn Stevenson, Caron Butler, J.J. Barea and Peja Stojakovic are all gone. Picking up Lamar Odom for next to nothing will help, but it’s not clear how he and Dirk Nowitzki, both power forwards, will fit together. Vince Carter’s name is bigger than his game at this point, so he will have a minimal impact. The Mavs were a No. 3 seed last year before their playoff run, so it’s hard to see them finishing any higher than fourth considering what they lost.

5. Los Angeles Lakers: This is a team seemingly locked into transition mode. Coach Phil Jackson and his triangle offense are gone. Odom’s sense of betrayal following the scuttled Chris Paul trade seemed to be the catalyst for his exit. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum face constant questioning over their future whereabouts. The erosion of the supporting cast and lack of depth will make it harder on Kobe Bryant, a 15-year vet who would already have been challenged by the compressed schedule. With Shannon Brown gone, there’s no obvious backup to Kobe. New coach Mike Brown has a challenge on his hands if he wants to escape the first round of the playoffs, much less win the championship.

6. San Antonio Spurs: It’s hard to get a read on this team. They won 61 games last year but got knocked off by the eighth-seeded Grizzlies, a year after pulling their own first-round upset as a No. 7 seed against the Mavs. However you look at it, the Spurs haven’t been to the conference finals since 2008, and there’s little to suggest they’ll get there this year, either. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are 35 and 34 years old, respectively, and Tony Parker, at 29, doesn’t seem like he’s the same, either. They lost sixth man George Hill in a trade for rookie Kawhi Leonard, a move that would raise eyebrows if it hadn’t been made by well-regarded general manager R.C. Buford. Leonard and second-year man Tiago Splitter will have to make significant impacts in order for the Spurs to remain an elite team.

7. Denver Nuggets: It’s a testament to the rebuilding efforts of Denver Nuggets general manager Masai Ujiri that they’re still one of the league’s deepest teams even though three key players from last year are stuck in China. If any team is built for three games in as many nights, it’s this one. There are no stars, barring the distinct possibility that Ty Lawson or Arron Afflalo have breakout seasons, but plenty of rotation-worthy bodies. The arrangement worked well during the second half of last season, and it will be enough to get the team to the playoffs again this year.

8. Portland Trail Blazers: Just as the Nuggets have shown resilience in the wake of the Carmelo trade, the Blazers franchise remains in the playoff hunt despite the retirement of Brandon Roy and continued injury woes of Greg Oden. LaMarcus Aldridge turned into a legitimate star last year, and Wesley Matthews justified his $35 million contract. The additions of Jamal Crawford and Raymond Felton will be enough to get them back to the postseason in a tough Western Conference.

9. Phoenix Suns: Nice guys Steve Nash and Grant Hill won’t finish last, but for the second year in a row, they won’t make the playoffs, either. The emergence of Marcin Gortat late last year gives the team some hope, but there’s little to like here beyond the graying brilliance of Steve Nash, age 37 and the pluck of Grant Hill, 39, neither of whom will be well-served by the condensed schedule.

10. Golden State Warriors: The key for the Warriors might be how much new coach Mark Jackson reins in the team’s up-tempo attack. Whether he likes it or not, this team is built for speed, at least until general manager Larry Riley, aided by the legendary Jerry West, starts making it over to fit the coach’s defensive style.

11. Sacramento Kings: Is this the year the young talent starts to mature? Tyreke Evans, the 2010 rookie of the year, Tyreke Evans was hurt last season and took a step back. He and DeMarcus Cousins are a year older and, hopefully, wiser, and they’ll have a full season with Marcus Thornton.

12. Minnesota Timberwolves: Another team stockpiling youngsters, the T’Wolves are hoping new coach Rick Adelman can help a few more players exceed expectations the way Kevin Love and Darko Milicic did last year.

13. Utah Jazz: As the preseason shedding of Mehmet Okur demonstrated, the Jazz are in full rebuilding mode. Look for a lot of experiments, like Paul Millsap at small forward, and heavy minutes for Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward.

14. Houston Rockets: What the Rockets may need most this year is Kevin McHale’s sense of humor. It might be a 66-game season, but it will feel much longer for Houston, even though they return many of the same players who overachieved to a ninth-place finish in the West last year.

15. New Orleans Hornets: There’s little doubt the Hornets extracted a heavy price from the Clippers for Chris Paul. It still won’t be enough to make them competitive this year. They got nothing in return for their second-best player, free agent David West, and much of the scoring burden rests on Eric Gordon’s shoulders.

Playoffs

First Round: Thunder over Blazers; Grizzlies over Nuggets; Clippers over Spurs; Lakers over Mavs

Conference Semis: Thunder over Lakers; Clippers over Grizzlies

Conference Finals: Thunder over Clippers

NBA Finals: Heat over Thunder in 7

NBA Preview 2011-12 (Part One)

Update: I realized that at least one Atlantic Division team needs to be among the top four seeds in the East, according to NBA rules. I kept the regular season rankings the same, but I adjusted the playoff matchups.

Who needs "'Twas the Night Before Christmas"? Let's crank up the old blog again for a Christmas Eve NBA preview! The Eastern Conference goes first.

1. Miami Heat: One of the least-notorious shortcomings of the Heat last year was that the team spent the entire year trying to figure out how everyone fit in. Injuries, midseason acquisitions and the challenge of getting three guys used to being the No. 1 option to function cohesively left the rotation in turmoil all the way through the Finals. After a season worth of tinkering, it seemed only appropriate that Erik Spoelstra switched starting point guards for Game 6 against Dallas. This year, there figures to be more stability. Now that LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have a better understanding of how to play with each other and, just as importantly, know who else will be on the floor with them, the Heat can fulfill their potential.

2. Chicago Bulls: A match almost a year in the making finally came to pass when Richard Hamilton signed to fill the gaping hole at two-guard in Chicago. If they avoid the injuries to Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer they suffered last year, the team that last year had the league’s best record and the youngest MVP in NBA history is poised to improve. It may still not be enough to catch the Heat, particularly if Boozer continues to disappoint as he did in the playoffs last year.

3. Atlanta Hawks: After the Heat and the Bulls, there’s a major drop-off in the East. Since the Celtics and Magic aren’t what they have been in recent seasons, the Hawks suddenly go up a few notches by default. In a shortened season that will reward stability, Atlanta stands to benefit from a core that’s been together since 2008. This is especially true if Jeff Teague carries over his revelatory performance from last year’s playoffs.

4. Indiana Pacers: Everyone’s favorite Eastern Conference team on the rise. And why not? Adding David West and George Hill to a promising young roster is reason for excitement. Plus, Paul George reported to camp 2 inches taller than last year, meaning he’ll be a matchup nightmare as a 6-foot-10 shooting guard.

5. Orlando Magic: The 4-2 first-round defeat to Atlanta last year, in which Dwight Howard scored 46 points in a game the Magic lost by 10 points, said volumes about the potential of this Magic team. They can only go as far as Dwight Howard can take them on his broad shoulders, and that might not be any farther than the first round of the playoffs. If they trade Howard, it’s not as if they’re breaking up a championship team.

6. Boston Celtics: The obituary of these Celtics has been written many times before, and yet they always seem to remain contenders. This time, though, they’re really in trouble. A compressed schedule minimizing the impact of their veteran core, and Jeff Green’s year-long absence robs them of the depth they needed to keep everyone fresh. It’s also a morale-killer that confirms the worst fears about the Kendrick Perkins trade.

7. New York Knicks: If last year’s Heat was supposed to be a three-man team, these Knicks take the idea a step further. Aside from the monster frontline of Carmelo, Amare and Tyson Chandler, there’s really not much else on the roster. Since depth is more valuable this season than it usually is, this is a problem, even if Amare can stay healthy. The Knicks need Baron Davis and Landry Fields at their best to have hope of grabbing a high playoff seed.

8. New Jersey Nets: If Mikhail Prokhorov’s manifest destiny is realized, a playoff appearance could be just the beginning for the Nets. Whether or not they land Dwight Howard this year, they probably still have enough to beat out weak competition for a postseason berth. A full season of Deron Williams and the veteran presence of DeShawn Stevenson, who, like Kris Humphries, signed in the final week of the shortened preseason, should be enough to push this team out of the lottery.

9. Philadelphia 76ers: It’s hard to argue the Sixers didn’t overachieve last year, especially considering the limited contributions they got from Evan Turner, the No. 2 pick in the 2010 draft. It’s reasonable to expect him to be better, but it’s just as reasonable to believe everyone else will take a step back. Their stability will help them stay competitive for a playoff spot, but their overall lack of talent will keep them from getting there.

10. Washington Wizards: John Wall is telling us to expect a breakout season from him, and he showed glimpses of his potential in his rookie season last year. No one else comes near his talent level on this team, but you don’t need much to be in the hunt for the postseason in the East.

11. Milwaukee Bucks: The team’s fate may depend on whether Andrew Bogut is finally healthy after his horrific arm injury curtailed a surprising run to the playoffs in 2010. The Bucks are hoping Stephen Jackson will play the same kind of role John Salmons did two years ago to boost their pop-gun offense. Jackson, who has back issues and has already made rumblings about his contract, might not be the guy to lean on.

12. Detroit Pistons: Greg Monroe’s steady improvement went largely unnoticed last season. If he keeps it up, he may get his due as an up-and-coming post presence, but because the rest of roster is bloated with tweener guards and small forwards, it will mean little in terms of wins and losses.

13. Cleveland Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson, the first and fourth picks in this year’s draft, respectively, provide hope in Cleveland. And hope is all they have.

14. Charlotte Bobcats: It says a lot about the Eastern Conference that this reprehensible roster might not be terrible enough to finish last.

15. Toronto Raptors: The team went 22-60 last year, failed to sign No. 5 pick Jonas Valanciunas, and its most significant offseason acquisition might be Gary Forbes. Enough said.

Playoffs

First Round: Heat over Nets; Bulls over Knicks; Hawks over Magic; Pacers over Celtics

Conference Semis: Heat over Pacers; Bulls over Hawks

Conference Finals: Heat over Bulls

Trade deadline analysis: Part 2

Now a look at the Western Conference:

Rockets
Acquire Kevin Martin and Hilton Armstrong from the Kings and Jared Jeffries and Jordan Hill from the Knicks for Tracy McGrady, Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey. The Rockets get a 2012 first-round pick from Knicks and swap their 2011 first-round picks with New York as long as the Knicks don't have the first overall selection.

Houston will miss Carl Landry's toughness, clutch scoring and vicious attacks on Dirk Nowitzki's elbow. But they get a legitimate scorer to plug in at starting shooting guard and get rid of a persona non grata in McGrady. Plus the opportunity to steal a lottery pick or two from the Knicks. This deal was actually GM Daryl Morey's second offer to the other teams. The first was "heads I win, tails you lose."

Clippers
Acquire Drew Gooden from Wizards in three-way deal with Cavs for Al Thornton and Sebastian Telfair.

Because really, what do the Clippers need with a good, young small forward anyway?

Grizzlies
Acquire Ronnie Brewer from the Jazz for a protected 2010 first-round pick.

"Yes, hello, NBA league office? This is Memphis GM Chris Wallace. I'd like to use my first-round pick this year to select the starting shooting guard off of the third-place team in the Western Conference ... wait, you mean I can actually do that? This was supposed to be a prank call!"

Kings
Acquire Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey from the Rockets and Larry Hughes from Knicks for Kevin Martin, Hilton Armstrong and Sergio Rodriguez.

Sacramento is now sure to lead the league in elbows nearly swallowed whole.

Jazz
Acquire protected 2010 first-round pick from Grizzlies for Ronnie Brewer

Hey Jazz fans! Excited that your team is hot and a game out of second place in the West? Well guess what? The Jazz just traded away its starting shooting guard for absolutely nothing until June! And they also failed to get anything in return for Carlos Boozer, who is bound to leave as a free agent this summer! Don't forget to renew your season tickets right away!

Trade deadline analysis

We're back with a look at the winners and losers at the NBA Trade Deadline. The Eastern Conference goes first.

Celtics:
Acquire Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry from the Knicks for Eddie House, J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker.

Let's look at it this way. If the road to getting back into title contention this year was a mile long for this team, Robinson moves them forward by about 10 feet. But at least he's better than the last flashy guard the C's got from New York. (Steph Marbury would contend this point, but he's too busy learning how to say "career-killing live Web cast" in Chinese.

Sixers:
Acquire Jodie Meeks, Francisco Elson and a second-round pick from the Bucks for Primoz Brezec and Royal Ivey.

Pitchers and catchers have already reported to Phillies camp, so this move will not make anyone in Philadelphia remember they have a basketball team, too. When the best thing to happen to your team all year is the uniforms, it doesn't bode well.

Knicks:
Acquire Tracy McGrady from the Rockets and Sergio Rodriguez from the Kings for Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill and Larry Hughes. The Knicks also give up their 2012 first-round pick and agree to swap 2011 first-round picks with the Rockets, unless the 2011 pick is first overall.
Acquire Eddie House, J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker from the Celtics for Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry.

New York's 2010-11 Plan A: Sign LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.
Plan B: Break the record New Jersey sets this year for worst record in league history.

Bulls:
Acquire Hakim Warrick and Joe Alexander from the Bucks for John Salmons.
Acquire Ronald Murray and Acie Law from the Bobcats for Tyrus Thomas.

Chicago better hope LeBron and Wade don't mind bad weather or unyielding comparisons to Jordan and Pippen. Or Vinny Del Negro.

Cavs:
Acquire Antawn Jamison from the Wizards and Sebastian Telfair from the Clippers for Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Emir Preldzic and a 2010 first-round pick.

Anything short of winning the 2010 title is disaster for Cleveland. Not quite the disaster that LeBron leaving would be, but still ...

Bucks:
Acquire John Salmons from Bulls for Hakim Warrick and Joe Alexander.
Acquire Primoz Brezec and Royal Ivey from Sixers for Jodie Meeks, Francisco Elson and a second-round pick.

I hear Salmons and Brandon Jennings will have a reverse H.O.R.S.E. contest next week. Both players will take an array of difficult shots with the goal being to miss as many as possible.

Bobcats:
Acquire Tyrus Thomas from Bulls for Ronald Murray and Acie Law.

Are we sure Larry Brown is healthy enough for Tyrus Thomas? I mean, is his heart OK? Can he handle this at his age?

Wizards:
Acquire Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Emir Preldzic and a 2010 first-round draft pick from the Cavs and Al Thornton from the Clippers for Antawn Jamison and Drew Gooden.

For those who missed the D-League showcase this season, here's another chance: Washington visits New Jersey on Feb. 28th. Get your tickets now!

Quick predictions

Coming in just before tip-off ...

Eastern Conference Playoff Teams
in order of finish
Magic
Cavs
Celtics
Hawks
Pistons
Bulls
Raptors
Heat

Western Conference Playoff Teams
in order of finish
Lakers
Mavs
Spurs
Blazers
Jazz
Nuggets
Thunder
Hornets

Playoffs
First Round
Magic 4, Heat 2
Cavs 4, Raptors 1
Celtics 4, Bulls 3
Hawks 4, Pistons 1
Lakers 4, Hornets 0
Mavs 4, Thunder 2
Spurs 4, Nuggets 1
Blazers 4, Jazz 2
Second Round
Magic 4, Hawks 1
Cavs 4, Celtics 3
Lakers 4, Blazers 2
Spurs 4, Mavs 0
Conference Finals
Magic 4, Cavs 1
Spurs 4, Lakers 1
NBA Finals
Spurs 4, Cavs 2

MVP: LeBron James

2009-10 Opening Day Starting Lineups

OK, so something a little bit different this year, perhaps, and we'll start with a very small scale season preview. I've tried to compile what I believe to be a pretty accurate account of every team's starting lineup as the season begins. I'm going by what every team's intended starting lineup is for their first game, notwithstanding minor injury. For instance, I list Josh Howard as a starter for Dallas even though he won't make it back from a left ankle injury in time for the opener. He should be back within the first month of the season, unlike Tracy McGrady, who's out until around the All-Star break. McGrady is not listed as a starter. In a couple of instances where it's too close to call and the team has made no official statement, I've listed both potential candidates.

So here goes. I plan on being back with occasional, with an emphasis on occasional, updates throughout the year. The daily updates were a little much and weren't really done the way I would have hoped last year, so we're trying something else.

UPDATE (6:22 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 27): Blazers SF Nicolas Batum will have shoulder surgery and is out for at least the first half of the season, so Martell Webster is likely to take his place.

Atlanta Hawks
PG Mike Bibby
SG Joe Johnson
SF Marvin Williams
PF Josh Smith
C Al Horford

Boston Celtics
PG Rajon Rondo
SG Ray Allen
SF Paul Pierce
PF Kevin Garnett
C Kendrick Perkins

Charlotte Bobcats
PG Raymond Felton
SG Raja Bell
SF Gerald Wallace
PF Boris Diaw
C Tyson Chandler

Chicago Bulls
PG Derrick Rose
SG John Salmons
SF Luol Deng
PF Tyrus Thomas
C Joakim Noah

Cleveland Cavaliers
PG Mo Williams
SG Anthony Parker/Delonte West
SF LeBron James
PF Anderson Varejao
C Shaquille O'Neal

Dallas Mavericks
PG Jason Kidd
SG Josh Howard
SF Shawn Marion
PF Dirk Nowitzki
C Drew Gooden

Denver Nuggets
PG Chauncey Billups
SG Arron Afflalo
SF Carmelo Anthony
PF Kenyon Martin
C Nene

Detroit Pistons
PG Rodney Stuckey
SG Richard Hamilton
SF Tayshaun Prince
PF Charlie Villanueva
C Kwame Brown

Golden State Warriors
PG Monta Ellis
SG Stephen Jackson
SF Anthony Randolph
PF Ronny Turiaf
C Andris Biedrins

Houston Rockets
PG Aaron Brooks
SG Trevor Ariza
SF Shane Battier
PF Luis Scola
C Chuck Hayes/David Andersen

Indiana Pacers
PG T.J. Ford
SG Brandon Rush
SF Danny Granger
PF Troy Murphy
C Roy Hibbert

Los Angeles Clippers
PG Baron Davis
SG Eric Gordon
SF Al Thornton
PF Chris Kaman
C Marcus Camby

Los Angeles Lakers
PG Derek Fisher
SG Kobe Bryant
SF Ron Artest
PF Pau Gasol
C Andrew Bynum

Memphis Grizzlies
PG Mike Conley
SG O.J. Mayo
SF Rudy Gay
PF Zach Randolph
C Marc Gasol

Miami Heat
PG Mario Chalmers
SG Dwyane Wade
SF Michael Beasley
PF Udonis Haslem
C Jermaine O'Neal

Milwaukee Bucks
PG Brandon Jennings/Luke Ridnour
SG Michael Redd
SF Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute
PF Hakim Warrick
C Andrew Bogut

Minnesota Timberwolves
PG Jonny Flynn
SG Corey Brewer
SF Damien Wilkins
PF Ryan Gomes
C Al Jefferson

New Jersey Nets
PG Devin Harris
SG Courtney Lee
SF Chris Douglas-Roberts
PF Y. Jianlian
C Brook Lopez

New York Knicks
PG Chris Duhon
SG Wilson Chandler
SF Al Harrington
PF Jared Jeffries
C David Lee

New Orleans Hornets
PG Chris Paul
SG Morris Peterson
SF Julian Wright
PF David West
C Emeka Okafor

Oklahoma City Thunder
PG Russell Westbrook
SG Thabo Sefolosha/James Harden
SF Kevin Durant
PF Jeff Green
C Nenad Krstic

Orlando Magic
PG Jameer Nelson
SG Vince Carter
SF Mickael Pietrus/Matt Barnes
PF Rashard Lewis
C Dwight Howard

Phoenix Suns
PG Steve Nash
SG Jason Richardson
SF Grant Hill
PF Amare Stoudemire
C Channing Frye

Philadelphia 76ers
PG Lou Williams
SG Andre Iguodala
SF Thaddeus Young
PF Elton Brand
C Samuel Dalembert

Portland Trail Blazers
PG Steve Blake
SG Brandon Roy
SF Martell Webster
PF LaMarcus Aldridge
C Greg Oden

Sacramento Kings
PG Tyreke Evans
SG Kevin Martin
SF Desmond Mason
PF Jason Thompson
C Sean May

San Antonio Spurs
PG Tony Parker
SG Roger Mason
SF Richard Jefferson
PF Antonio McDyess
C Tim Duncan

Toronto Raptors
PG Jose Calderon
SG Demar DeRozan
SF Hedo Turkoglu
PF Chris Bosh
C Andrea Bargnani

Utah Jazz
PG Deron Williams
SG Ronnie Price
C Mehmet Okur
SF Andrei Kirilenko
PF Carlos Boozer

Washington Wizards
PG Gilbert Arenas
SG Mike Miller
SF Caron Butler
PF Antawn Jamison
C Brendan Haywood

Marion to Mavs in 4-way trade

No deal in the NBA, with its complex salary cap structure, is simple. The four-way trade approved this afternoon is certainly no exception. Shawn Marion was acquired by the Dallas Mavericks in a byzantine arrangement that has assets going between the Mavs, the Raptors, the Magic and the Grizzlies. The core of the deal has Marion heading from Toronto to Dallas in a sign-and-trade move. Kris Humphries and Austrailian centerNathan Jawai goes with Marion, while the Raptors get Antoine Wright and Devean George in return. Hedo Turkoglu's decision to go to Toronto is wrapped up in this, as Toronto gets him as part of a sign-and-trade with Orlando, and the Magic at least receive cash and a trade exception instead of nothing, which they would have gotten if Turkoglu simply signed with the Raptors. The Grizzlies helped facilitate this, sending Greg Buckner to Dallas and receiving Jerry Stackhouse in return along with a 2016 second round pick. The Grizzlies will likely release Stackhouse, meaning they wind up gaining a bit of cap space and little else. Their participation in the deal is by far the most questionable, as though GM Chris Wallace were simply looking for ways to build good will after his gift of Pau Gasol to the Lakers helped L.A. to the championship. The pursuit of Allen Iverson, on top of at all, must leave Grizzlies fans shaking their heads. The Mavs are at the other end of the spectrum. They improve their perimeter defense markedly with Nowitzki around, and if they keep Josh Howard, they'll likely move him to shooting guard to facilitate Marion at small forward and allow Sixth Man of the Year Jason Terry to continue in his bench role. They signed Marcin Gortat and have Jason Kidd coming back, too, so they're clearly looking to win now, a smart move given Nowitzki is in his prime. They probably haven't done enough to put themselves over the top, but they've gotten a lot closer. The Raptors are retooling after last season's debacle, and trying to show Chris Bosh that they're committed to winning. They didn't have any intention of signing Marion after they agreed to a deal with Turkoglu, so that they receive a couple of veterans like Wright and George makes this trade a winner for them. Wright can move into the starting shooting guard position vacated by Anthony Parker, who is headed to the Cavs. The criticism for Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo should come not for his willingness to get involved in deal so much as the decision to dump Marion and pick up Turkoglu in the first place. The notion that Turkoglu is that much of an upgrade over Marion is not a strong one, and what the Raptors gain in outside shooting and a few more points per game, they lose in on the glass, where Marion was 3.1 rebounds a night better than Turkoglu. Bosh, who averaged 10 boards a night, almost twice as many as the next best returning Raptor, will have to take a leap and rebound a lot like Turkoglu's old teammate Dwight Howard, who averaged 13.9 a game last year.

Lakers make faustian deal for Artest

1. The Lakers clearly have a win-now mentality, and with Kobe preparing for his 31st birthday next month, that makes sense. The move to acquire 29-year-old Ron Artest and let 24-year-old Trevor Ariza go would seem to support that theory, but it's only a marginal upgrade that could have a much greater long-term cost. Ariza raised his game significantly in the playoffs, justifying his midseason insertion into the starting lineup with clutch play and 11.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game in the postseason. Artest's numbers were better, with 15.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists a night during the playoffs, but it would be hard to argue the former Defensive Player of the Year was any more effective at stopping people than Ariza. It's even harder to make a case that Artest is a better guy to have around the locker room, given his well-documented antics. He's never played with a superstar like Kobe before, and hasn't been surrounded by quite as much talent either. Ariza meshed quite effectively as a role player, and it remains to be seen whether Artest can do half as well as someone who is no more than a third offensive option behind Kobe and Pau Gasol. The Lakers will be paying Artest about the same amount of money Ariza is getting from the Rockets, but Artest gets three years instead of five on his contract. It makes little sense why Mitch Kupchak and the L.A. braintrust would balk at just two more years for someone who could have been a cornerstone for the next few years and the transition into the post-Kobe era. The next five years with Ariza could have at least ensured a 20-something would occupy one starting wing spot while Kobe aged. Artest turns 30 in November and will be entering his 11th NBA season. The only party that came out looking worse than the Lakers was Ariza himself, who goes from the champions of the league to a team that may just have lost Yao for good and is still awaiting Tracy McGrady's return from microfracture knee surgery. It hardly seems worth it, for either Ariza or the Lakers, given the difference of two years that appeared to be all that stood in the way of a better situation for both.

Three random observations ...

... about the NBA:

1. It was odd that the Thunder passed up Ricky Rubio, given that he is the pure point guard they lack. It was odder still that the Kings didn't take him, either. Rubio fell into the lap of the Minnesota Timberwolves at the fifth pick in Thursday's 2009 NBA Draft, and in a night that was heavy with point guards, the Wolves got quality and quantity. Rubio, an 18-year-old whose passing skills have already been compared to those of the all-time greats, has experience as a professional in his native Spain and at the Olympic level with the Spanish national team, the silver medalists in 2008. The Thunder, and especially the Kings, will regret missing out on him. James Harden, only 19, is a legitimate top four selection, so Oklahoma City is at least getting a player of decent value out of the No. 3 pick. Tyreke Evans is talented, but there are questions about his shooting and athleticism, which doesn't bode well for a two-guard. He plays the same position as Kevin Martin, the best player on the Sacramento roster. The move just doesn't make sense. The Wolves have quite a pair in Rubio and Al Jefferson, but they inexplicably took Jonny Flynn, another point guard, with the sixth pick. GM David Kahn is promoting the idea that the two could play together, but he wouldn't compromise his trade leverage by announcing that one or both is available. The truth is likely that one of them can be had. The Wolves turned heads again when they selected Ty Lawson, yet another point guard, at No. 18, but they quickly traded him to Denver for future considerations.

2. The New York fans were sorely disappointed when Stephen Curry was taken by the Warriors at No. 7, one pick before the Knicks could have nabbed him. Curry, with his ability to shoot and finish, would no doubt have been fun to watch Mike D'Antoni's system, but New York need not shed a tear. Jordan Hill may actually be an even better fit. He is a 6-10 power forward who can rebound and run the floor, which makes for a prototypical D'Antoni center. The Knicks have David Lee at center, too, but often teamed him with Jared Jeffries, a lithe power forward over whom Hill is a significant improvement. Lee is a restricted free agent, so the Knicks have the option now to not match another team's long-term offer if they so desire, opening up even more cap space for 2010. Hill has shown continual improvement in his rebounding numbers while at college, winding up at an average of 11 per game this past season at Arizona, and if that trend continues in the pros, the Knicks may have come up with a steal.

3. The news Thursday was not all about the draft. The Magic acquired Vince Carter, along with second-year power forward Ryan Anderson, for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Tony Battie. It's a surprising move, since it was clear the formula Orlando had this past season worked, at least well enough to get the team to the Finals. Magic GM Otis Smith, to his credit, wants more. Yet it's not clear whether the Magic really got any better. They diversified their offense with a player who can penetrate, create his own shot and gave themselves another ballhandler, all of which was necessary. He's still capable of scoring 20 points a game, dishing out close to five assists and grabbing about five rebounds, but Carter's numbers were down across the board this past year, when he turned 32. It's likely he'll continue his decline this year, but even a diminished Carter may be better than what the Magic had. The tough part of this trade for the Magic is having to give up Lee, an impressive rookie whose game is only going to get better, instead of worse. Orlando may find out they would have been better off keeping him, but they instead decided to go with Carter, whose talents are far more of a known quantity. Anderson's presence in the trade may have been enough to quell Smith's concerns, since like Lee, he seems poised for improvement after a promising rookie year. His 6-foot-10, 240 pounds frame, 4,7 rebounds in 20 minutes a night and 36.5 percent three-point shooting make him a perfect backup for Rashard Lewis. The Nets probably aren't ecstatic about giving him up, especially since they clearly have an eye on the future. The rest of the trade sets up New Jersey quite well for the summer of 2010. Alston and Battie are contracts that expire after next season, when they will look to combine a young nucleus of Devin Harris, Lee and Brook Lopez with cap space to go after a premier free agent class.

Three random observations ...

... about the NBA:

1. Shaq is finally headed to Cleveland. The Cavs are acquiring him for the 46th pick in Thursday's draft plus Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic, two players the Suns will be more easily be able to move off their books. The deal, which this blog first discussed in February, gives LeBron his first Hall of Fame-caliber teammate, albeit one in the twilight of his career. Shaq will turn 38 next March, but his 17.8 points per game and 8.4 rebounds from last season represented a renaissance that included a deserving selection to the All-Star Game, where he split MVP honors with Kobe. Now, Shaq will look to one-up Kobe with another NBA title. It's clear Cleveland wants to win this season, while LeBron is still under contract. There's no other reason to acquire a center in his late 30s with a $21 million salary. The move shores up Cleveland's frontline, which was overmatched by Orlando's athleticism and diversity of skill in the Eastern Conference Finals. It provides LeBron with the kind of playoff-tested sidekick that he sorely missed in that Orlando series, as long as Shaq remains healthy and in good playing shape. Shaq's continued production at a high-level is a risky proposition, but the Cavs must go all-in this year. It's a gamble worth taking. The move makes sense for the Suns, too, who were going nowhere. It will be painful for Phoenix to lose Shaq, Steve Nash, who is sure to follow, and other veterans like Amare Stoudemire and Grant Hill, but it's clear they were no longer close to being title contenders after missing the playoffs this year. Now, they can begin to rebuild.

2. The Spurs, another perenial contender that took a step back this past season, found a way to move back into the picture. The acquisition of Richard Jefferson for Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas gives the Spurs the kind of athletic wing player they've long lacked to put along side Manu Ginobili in crunch time. Jefferson, 29, revitalizes the aging Spurs, who get Ginobili back from the ankle injury that prematurely ended his season this year. Jefferson averaged 19.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists last year, and has experience as a contributing member of a contending team with New Jersey in the first few years of his career. It's another shrewd move by general manager R.C. Buford, and while it's far from a panacea for the Spurs, who must be wary of the long-term health of Ginobili and Tim Duncan, it's likely the best move they could have made this offseason. The trade is a salary dump for Milwaukee, a franchise that continues to search for answers, having failed to win more than 42 games for eight straight seasons after making the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001.

3. I hesitate to do mock drafts with as many trades and potential deals affecting the draft order as we've seen this year, but here's a stab at it. A lot of speculation holds that Ricky Rubio, the 18-year-old Spanish point guard phenom, will drop after a poor workout with Sacramento. Don't buy it. Rubio, competing in last year's Olympics, has already shown he can compete at a high level with world-class competition. He shouldn't fall out of the top four, and if he does, a team or two will look back on this draft with a great deal of regret.

1. L.A. Clippers: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
2. Memphis: Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut
3. Oklahoma City: Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain
4. Sacramento: James Harden, G, Arizona State
5. Minnesota: Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona
6. Minnesota: Stephen Curry, PG, Davidson
7. Golden State: Demar Derozan, SG/SF, Southern Cal
8. New York: Jonny Flynn, PG, Syracuse
9. Toronto: Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis
10. Milwaukee: Jrue Holiday, G, UCLA

Update: Golden State appears to be sending Jamal Crawford to the Hawks for point guards Acie Law and Speedy Claxton, so I'm now projecting the Warriors will take Demar Derozan instead of Jonny Flynn, whom I see getting scooped up by the Knicks.

NBA Finals, Game 5

Say what you will about Kobe, but nobody wanted it more this season. Kobe led the Lakers to a title without Shaquille O'Neal for the first time in his fifth try without his former Hall of Fame teammate, furthering his position among the All-Time greats Sunday after a 99-86 victory to seal the NBA championship. Kobe combined with Lamar Odom, coincidentally one of the players acquired in the trade that sent Shaq away, to take the heart out of the Orlando Magic, who never challenged after a 16-0 L.A. run in the second quarter. Kobe scored 30 points, had six rebounds and dished out five assists, right on his numbers for the playoffs, and won his first Bill Russell Finals MVP award. Odom had 17 points, including three from three-point range, and pulled down 10 rebounds that were key to L.A.'s 47-36 advantage on the boards. Odom in essence canceled out Rashard Lewis, who had 18 points and 10 rebounds. The problem for Orlando is that Lewis was their most prolific contributor Sunday. Dwight Howard was held almost completely in check, scoring only 11 points to go with 10 rebounds and three blocks. The Magic shot just 8-for-27 from behind the arc, while the Lakers were 8-for-16 and made 11 more free throws as well. The game simply wasn't competitive once Trevor Ariza, who scored 11 of his 15 points during a four-minute stretch in the second quarter, heated up after a confrontation with Hedo Turkoglu. The two were jawing near the Orlando bench, and both were hit with technical fouls with 5:43 to go until halftime. The Magic were ahead 40-39 at that point, but Ariza nailed a pair of 26-foot three-pointers, made a layup, a 15-footer and a free throw, and by the end of the half the Lakers had a 10-point lead. Ariza used the series to deepen the Magic's lament over trading him away last season for Mo Evans and Brian Cook. The Lakers got Pau Gasol in another lopsided deal last year, and he continued to pay dividends in the clinching game Sunday, delivering 14 points and a game-high 15 rebounds. The Lakers haven't lost three in a row since acquiring Gasol, a staggering achievement that underscores the hole the Magic were in, trailing 3 games to 1 and needing to win three straight. Orlando was nonetheless one Courtney Lee shot in Game 2 and one Dwight Howard free throw in Game 4 from a much different series. The Finals, apart from Sunday and Game 1, were far from a victory lap for the Lakers. It's not clear, given how close Orlando came, and the fact the Cavs saved their worst games for last, that the best team won. It is certain that these Lakers are a championship-caliber club, and that coach Phil Jackson should be recognized as the gold standard among NBA bosses. His record of 10 titles, more than anyone not just in the NBA but in the NFL or Major League Baseball as well, will likely stand forever. He was fortunate, indeed, to lead teams with the best players of their time, like Jordan, Shaq and Kobe, but plenty of coaches have failed to make the most of their talent. A few others have taken them to the top of the mountain once or twice, but never again. Jackson has proven again and again that his success, and the success of his teams, is no fluke.

---

Thanks for reading this year. It's been a fun learning experience and I intend to keep this going. This is a constantly evolving process, so I'm not sure how the blog will look next year, but it will be here. Keep an eye out for draft coverage and analysis of free agent signings and trades in the offseason. It should be interesting, with all sorts of teams looking to dump salary. And, in case you're wondering, my predictions, so solid during the first two rounds of the playoffs, were off the mark in the last two. I took the Cavs in five games in the Eastern Conference Finals, but wound up one of many who were caught off guard by the Magic, who won in six. I was much closer in the Western Conference Finals, where I had the Lakers winning in 7. They took care of Denver in six. I had the right team in the Finals, but I thought it would be a seven-game series instead of five. How was I supposed to know Dwight Howard would miss two free throws and Jameer Nelson would completely forget Derek Fisher was one of the all-time great clutch three-point shooters?

NBA Finals Game 4

The Orlando Magic could easily be up 3-1 in the NBA Finals. They're down 3-1 instead. The Magic were up by a dozen at halftime Thursday, and held a five-point lead with as few as 31 seconds to go, but shockingly poor defense and two missed free throws by Dwight Howard allowed the Lakers to force overtime, where they pulled away for a 99-91 victory. Game 4 was a dramatic collapse that costs Orlando any reasonable shot it might have had and presents the Lakers with a clear shot at the championship. The Magic built an 87-82 lead on a three-pointer and a tough runner by Hedo Turkoglu, who hit more than his share of difficult shots en route to a team-high 25 points. Turkoglu never made another basket. Rashard Lewis missed a 16-footer with 39 seconds to go, and Derek Fisher, whose greatest contribution to the game was yet to come, grabbed the rebound, and started a fast break that ended with Kobe finding a hustling Pau Gasol for an uncontested dunk. That cut the lead to three, but the Magic were able to get the ball to their best player, Dwight Howard, underneath, where three defenders converged upon him and sent him to the line with 10.4 seconds left. The Magic shot just 60 percent from the line all night, but either one of Howard's free throws would have in essence sealed the game for the Magic. Howard, who was a woeful 6-for-14 from the stripe, missed them both. Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy elected not to foul, and allow the Lakers to shoot for three-pointer if they wanted. Van Gundy didn't tell Jameer Nelson to give his man ample room to take the trey, but that's exactly what Nelson did, laying off of Fisher as the veteran sharpshooter added one more clutch playoff three-pointer to his resume. The stunned Magic had all sorts of trouble getting the ball inbounds for an answer with 4.6 remaining, and a quick leaner by Mickael Pietrus went array as the buzzer sounded. Orlando continued to look rattled in the overtime, scoring only three points, but had the game tied in the final minute. Fisher once more delivered a daggar, with another three-pointer that gave the Lakers a 94-91 lead with 31 seconds to go. Turkoglu missed a three-pointer on the other end, and Gasol got free for another dunk that served as exclamation point to the L.A. victory. The words preceding the punctuation would read, "Thank You," for 19 turnovers and 15 missed free throws from the Magic. The Lakers didn't fail to take advantage of the opportunities laid at their feet, and again were led by the brilliance of Kobe, who had 32 points, eight assists and seven rebounds. Gasol had 16 points and 10 rebounds, and Trevor Ariza, who scored all of his points in the second half, put up 16 points and nine rebounds. None of it would have gone toward a win if the Magic had not allowed it to happen.

NBA Finals Game 3

Kobe came out Tuesday determined to close the door on any chance he would not cement his legacy with a championship this year. He finished with the kind of performance that raises legitimate doubts about his championship mettle and the outcome of the series with Orlando. The Magic cut the L.A. lead to 2-1, prevailing 108-104 in a game the Lakers could have won if Kobe had not missed 10 of his last 13 shots from the floor, five of his last eight free throws, and lost the ball when Dwight Howard poked it away in the final minute. The stretch run was the complete opposite of his first quarter, when Kobe had 17 points and either scored or assisted on all but four L.A. baskets. He was a major reason why the Lakers were able to stick around despite 75 percent shooting in the first half for the Magic, a phenomenal display that set an all-time NBA Finals record for field goal percentage in a half. Kobe's totals of 31 points and eight assists don't suggest any sort of failure, but the lofty standard to which he is aspiring to be held demands more than just a prolific statistical showing. Too many misses and mistakes prevented his team from sealing victory after erasing what had been a nine-point deficit with 7:55 to go. Kobe missed from close range with 3:33 left, was off on a 3-pointer with 2:02 on the clock, clanked a free throw with 59 seconds to go, lost the ball with 28 seconds remaining and missed two three-pointers on the final L.A. possession. Those troubles obscure a scintillating 63 percent shooting performance by the Magic and a 51 percent shooting night for the Lakers that was nearly enough to put them over the top. Rafer Alston had a fearless performance after scoring a total of 10 points in the first two games, going 8-for-12 for 20 points. Rashard Lewis shot 3-for-6 on his three-pointers, including a pair of treys at the end of the first half that erased the last lead for the Lakers, and went 8-for-14 overall to score 21 points. Howard tied Lewis for the team high in points, going 11-for-16 at the line and 5-for-6 from the floor. Hedo Turkoglu was 7-for-12 for 18 points on an all-around night, leading the team with seven assists and grabbing six rebounds as well. Mickael Pietrus came off the bench to score 18 as well and, once in the game, was able to slow Kobe, who was far and away the focus of L.A.'s offense. His 11-for-25 performance from the floor came on more than twice as many shots as any other Laker, though his teammates made the most of their limited opportunities. Pau Gasol was 9-for-11 for 23 points, and Lamar Odom and Jordan Farmar had identical 4-for-6, 11-point stat lines off the bench. Trevor Ariza struggled with his shot thanks to Turkoglu's defense, but managed 13 points and seven rebounds. Derek Fisher went 4-for-9 for nine points, including a wide open three-pointer he canned to pull the Lakers within two points at the 5:25 mark of the fourth quarter. The Lakers tied the game on a pair of Gasol free throws with 2:41 to play, but Pietrus finished off a Turkoglu miss with a resounding dunk that gave the Magic the lead for good. The Magic are a couple of Courtney Lee misses in Game 2 away from enjoying a lead in the series, as well. Kobe still has a ways to go before he wins his first NBA crown without Shaq, and as the unquestioned best player on his team. The question for the rest of the series, much as it was coming into the Finals, is whether he possesses that extra gear necessary to carry a team the way Jordan, Russell, Bird and select few others did. If he does, he will ascend into their ranks. If he plays the way he did in the second half of Game 3, he won't.

NBA Finals Game 2

The first assignment for the Magic after Game 2 of the NBA Finals might be making sure rookie Courtney Lee isn't ruminating about the end of regulation. He missed two shots from close range in the last 10 seconds, either of which would have provided visiting Orlando the winning margin in what turned out to be a 101-96 overtime victory for L.A. that gives the Lakers a 2-0 series lead. Lee drove the lane with 10.5 seconds to go and missed a contested layup, but after Hedo Turkoglu blocked Kobe Bryant's shot on the other end, Lee received an unexpected second chance. He broke toward the basket on a backdoor cut as the ball was being inbounded on an inbounds play with six-tenths of a second go to, catching the ball in the air and switching hands to get a shot off in time over the outstretched hands of Pau Gasol. The ball was shot with a little too much force and bounced off the backboard and away. It was a tough shot, and the layup before was far from a wide-open opportunity. Stan Van Gundy and Lee's teammates must impress upon him that the weight of the loss does not fall on his shoulders alone. The Magic simply made too many mistakes, turning the ball over 20 times while Van Gundy's lineup experiments bore no fruit. Van Gundy used Rashard Lewis as a small forward with centers Dwight Howard and Marcin Gortat on the floor early in the fourth quarter, and went largely without a point guard down the stretch. The Lakers were unfazed, as Kobe, Gasol and Odom all proved why they're top-level talents. Kobe did plenty of scoring and passing, with 29 points and eight assists, while Gasol had 24 points and 10 rebounds, and Odom went for 19 points and eight rebounds in 46 minutes. The Magic had the hot-shooting Lewis, who nailed six treys for 34 points to go along with 11 rebounds, 22 points on 8-for-17 shooting from Hedo Turkoglu and a 17-point, 16-rebound night out of Howard. They just didn't have a complimentary player like Derek Fisher, who nailed a couple of three-pointers and went 4-for-9 from the field overall to register as L.A.'s fourth double-figure scorer with 12 points. No one other than the three high-scorers for Orlando had more than five points. Fisher played 41 minutes while his understudies Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown were out there for just six minutes apiece, and the veteran rewarded coach Phil Jackson's confidence. Kobe, Gasol and Odom will be remembered as the prime movers for this Lakers team if they can win two more games, but Fisher remains an invaluable asset when he's needed the most.


The NBA finals are always hyped as a clash of stars, but role players often have as much to do with the outcome as anyone else. Veteran Derek Fisher, who at times has struggled with his shot this year,

NBA Finals Preview

No. 1 L.A. LAKERS vs. No. 3 ORLANDO MAGIC
Summary
This year's NBA Finals matchup would be highly anticipated in just about any other year. The prospect of a rising young star in Dwight Howard leading a 59-win team of three-point gunners into a battle with Kobe, Gasol and a talented yet vulnerable 65-win Lakers team has a great deal of cachet, but because we missed out on LeBron vs. Kobe, it's a little deflating. The NBA and would be better to move on, though, and appreciate the plentiful appeal of the matchup we have.

Orlando comes in riding a huge high after making the Cavs look like LeBron and the D-League All-Stars. The Lakers played some of their best basketball against the Nuggets, but not until Games 5 and 6. The eternal question about this Laker team is about the kind of effort they'll give. It's the Finals, so one might expect them to be going at full bore, but because it's the Magic, instead of the Cavs, their fragile psyches may allow them to let up. Coach Phil Jackson, if he earns his record 10th ring, will have earned it. He's opposed by Stan Van Gundy, finally manifesting the championship run he seemed poised to take with the Miami Heat a few years earlier before Pat Riley usurped the opportunity. Van Gundy has proven himself with his ability to make adjustments, and he'll be forced to make more, especially if the X-factor, Jameer Nelson, makes a return from his torn labrum. His chances of playing seem to depend on whichever member of the Magic organization is speaking at the time. The odds he'd actually be effective are, despite his history success against the Lakers, much lower than a 50-50 shot. Nelson's potential comeback at best could serve as an effective smokescreen that creates a distraction for the Lakers. At worst, it disrupts the chemistry and psychology of the Magic, a team that comes in playing remarkably well. Van Gundy, too, will earn his title if he gets it.

The point guard position is a pivotal matchup with or without Nelson. Rafer Alston had a career playoff high 26 points in Game 4 against Cleveland, but followed it up with just three points in Game 5. Derek Fisher has been up-and-down throughout the playoffs, as have his two backups, Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown. The play of the backups, with veteran Anthony Johnson against the younger Lakers, may be the determinant.

The other guard position is all about Kobe, who had an awesome closeout game against the Nuggets, scoring 35 points to go with 10 assists and six rebounds. He put it all together as both a distributor and a scorer, and when he has nights like that, the Lakers are simply unstoppable. The Magic will send whomever necessary to limit his scoring and passing, with Alston, starting shooting guard Courtney Lee, Hedo Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus and J.J. Redick all likely to get a look at some point. Pietrus, who was the primary defender against LeBron in the conference finals, is most likely to spend crunch time assigned to Kobe, creating as tough a three- or four-week stretch as there can be for any one defender. LeBron scored plenty of points against him, but Pietrus was able to keep LeBron from becoming an offensive facilitator, and if he can do the same against Kobe, it'll be a huge plus for the Magic.

The Orlando wing player not assigned to Kobe gets Trevor Ariza, the defensive specialist who has suddenly become potent on the offensive end as well, going 30-for-60 from behind the three-point arc in the playoffs and lifting his regular season average of 8.9 points per game to 11.4 for the postseason. Opponents can't double off of him to check Kobe, a significant breakthrough for the L.A. attack. His emergence has been mirrored by the resurgence of Hedo Turkoglu, who has played better as the playoffs have gone on. He was a major force in the Cleveland series even without an eye-opening percentage from behind the arc. He averaged 17.2 points, 6.7 assists and 6.3 rebounds a game against the Cavs, while shooting 39 percent from long distance. He gave the Magic a point forward who could score from just about anywhere on the floor, creating much greater offensive diversity than just Howard and three-point gunning. He'll give Ariza plenty of headaches if he can keep it up, and perhaps force Jackson to use Lamar Odom on him instead of Rashard Lewis.

Orlando's power forward has been the sort of all-around offensive presence the Magic have needed him to be throughout the playoffs, as Lewis has scored in double figures in each of the team's 19 postseason games and averaged 19.4 points per game for the playoffs. Odom, who appears to have shaken off the effects of a blow to the back he suffered during a fall in the Houston series, is just the sort of versatile defender who can counteract Lewis, having the ability to guard the perimeter as well as the post. Odom will likely see crunch time minutes, but Pau Gasol will start at power forward, meaning Lewis will be challenged to defend Gasol's array of moves in the post. Gasol is not an overwhelming physical presence for Lewis, however, and the Magic should be more easily be able to exploit Gasol's weaknesses as a perimeter defender if Jackson indeed starts Andrew Bynum instead of Odom.

Bynum would start at center, of course, against Howard, a daunting challenge for a 21-year-old who disappears at times and was slow to recover from a midseason knee injury. The Lakers, much as the Magic will probably do with Kobe, are likely to give Howard multiple looks, with Bynum, Gasol and perhaps the ubiquitous Odom as candidates to go up against Superman. Howard must establish himself early for the Magic, particularly if Bynum is starting, and get in a rhythm before frustration and fouls set in. The Lakers, after seeing what happened when Howard saw too much single coverage in Game 6 against Cleveland, are probably going to come with a lot of help defenders and try to cut off passing lanes to deny him the ball. The Magic, as has been well documented, are prone to going away from Howard for long lengths of time, so if the Lakers can do what they can to discourage his teammates from passing him the ball, he might go a long time in between touches. That will be especially true if the Lakers can use their length to limit Howard from collecting the gargantuan 15.4 rebounds a game he's pulled down throughout the playoffs.

The benches would seem to indicate an advantage for the Lakers on sheer volume alone, since they can easily go 10 players deep. Each team has its three-point marksman, namely Sasha Vujacic for L.A. and Redick for Orlando. The Magic have an effective backup center in Marcin Gortat, while the Lakers have Luke Walton, a resourceful player who has started for the team in the past and can be a pest defensively on Turkoglu or Lewis.

The Lakers greatest edge still revolves around Kobe, and his ability to take over games in a myriad ways. They'll need him to play at his best not just for points and assists but for his energy and ability to spark his teammates as well. He is, just as he seemed so eager to be when Shaq was around, the single most important person for the Lakers. He's longed for the opportunity to power his team to a championship. Staring the ravages of age in the face as he competes in his 13th NBA season and approaches his 31st birthday, this may well be his best chance left for a ring. He's not letting it go. Prediction: Lakers in 7.

Schedule
Game 1 - Thu June 4 Orlando at L.A. Lakers 9 p.m. ABC
Game 2 - Sun June 7 Orlando at L.A. Lakers 8 p.m. ABC
Game 3 - Tue June 9 L.A. Lakers at Orlando 9 p.m. ABC
Game 4 - Thu June 11 L.A. Lakers at Orlando 9 p.m. ABC
Game 5 * Sun June 14 L.A. Lakers at Orlando 8 ABC
Game 6 * Tue June 16 Orlando at L.A. Lakers 9 ABC
Game 7 * Thu June 18 Orlando at L.A. Lakers 9 ABC

Lineups
Los Angeles Lakers
Starters
PG Derek Fisher
SG Kobe Bryant
SF Trevor Ariza
PF Pau Gasol
C Andrew Bynum
Bench
F Lamar Odom
PG Jordan Farmar
G Sasha Vujacic
G Shannon Brown
SF Luke Walton
PF Josh Powell
C D.J. Mbenga

Orlando Magic
Starters
PG Rafer Alston
SG Courtney Lee
SF Hedo Turkoglu
PF Rashard Lewis
C Dwight Howard
Bench
G/F Mickael Pietrus
PG Anthony Johnson
C Marcin Gortat
SG J.J. Redick
F/C Tony Battie
PG Tyronn Lue
C Adonal Foyle
SG Jeremy Richardson
Injuries
PG Jameer Nelson (separated shoulder, questionable)

Eastern Conference Finals Game 6

The weight LeBron took upon his shoulders to carry his team past Orlando into the NBA Finals finally became too great to bear. LeBron went scoreless in the second quarter and was held to 25 points, matching his lowest output of the postseason, as the Magic ousted Cleveland with a 103-90 victory Saturday to win the Eastern Conference Finals 4-2. It was Dwight Howard in the dominant role typically played by LeBron, as Howard scored a playoff career high 40 points to go with 14 points. Howard was the focal point of the Magic offense two nights after taking just 10 shots in Game 5. Saturday he took 21 shots and made 14 of them, and went 12-for-16 at the line as the Cavs elected not to double-team so as to cover Orlando's potent three-point shooters. The strategy failed to work on Howard or the gunners, as Mickael Pietrus went 4-for-7 from behind the arc and Rafer Alston and Rashard Lewis both checked in with 3-for-7 performances from three-point range. The Magic were 12-for-29 on treys, while the Cavs had their own success, going 9-for-20. Mo Williams was 3-for-4 from long distance, but all of his production came in the second half after he had just three points going into the break. Delonte West had two three-pointers on a 22-point night when he was the major weapon other than LeBron, who hit a pair of three-pointers himself. The stat line of 25 points, seven assists and seven rebounds is quite a night for just about anyone, but for LeBron it was a significant dropoff after scoring at least 35 points in each of the first five games of the series. His teammates, and Williams in particular, failed to deliver the support that would have allowed him to be anything less than spectacular every night. Williams was acquired in the offseason to provide a steady ballhandler and an additional scoring threat, but he didn't have a single game in the series with more than five assists and only once delivered more than 20 points. Williams had 17 points and five assists Saturday, but Zydrunas Ilgauskas ended his season with a real thud, scoring just two points on 1-for-5 shooting while getting destroyed by Howard on the other end. Igauskas has been one of the best offensive centers in the league for many years in Cleveland, but looked all of his 33 years against Howard, who is a decade younger. Ilgauskas, a free agent this summer, may be let go as the Cavs face a crucial summer for their franchise. They have just one more year with LeBron before his contract is up in 2010, and it may be their last chance at what has seemed like a sure championship. Anderson Varejao, Joe Smith and Wally Szczerbiak are all free agents as well, and general manager Danny Ferry faces some hard decisions. The Magic seem much more well-positioned for the future, but they don't have to worry about next year just yet. The mercurial, quirky team reliant on outside shooting and their physical specimen of a center will see if they can continue to trample on the championship plans of another favored team when they face the Lakers in the Finals. We'll have a full Finals preview in advance of Game 1 on Thursday.

Western Conference Finals Game 6

The Lakers have had their struggles in this postseason, but they appear to be peaking at the right time. L.A. played at full intensity while the Nuggets endured a curious collapse, particularly at the defensive end, as the Lakers advanced to the Finals for the second straight year after a 119-92 blowout Friday to end the Western Conference Finals in six games. The Lakers shot a whopping 57 percent, and made nine of 16 three-point attempts. Kobe Bryant led five players in double-figures and three players who scored 20 or more for the Lakers with 35 points on 12-for-20 shooting. Kobe added 10 assists and six rebounds on a night when he had opportunities for himself as well as his teammates. Pau Gasol had 20 points and 12 rebounds, while Lamar Odom delivered his second straight impressive performance with 20 points and eight rebounds off the bench. Trevor Ariza went 3-for-4 from behind the arc for 17 points as he continues to show improvement, particularly on the offensive end. The Lakers had an edge on the boards as well, outrebounding Denver 38-27 as L.A.'s high field goal percentage manifested itself in the form of fewer missed shots leading to fewer transition opportunities for the Nuggets. Chauncey Billups, who averaged 20.6 points for the playoffs, never got into a rhythm Friday, and took just seven shots for 10 points. He did his best to ignite the offense with nine assists, but the rest of the team had just five assists combined, while the Lakers totaled 28 assists. The only sharpshooter for the Nuggets in Game 6 was J.R. Smith, who was 4-for-9 from three-point range and 10-for-17 from the floor for 24 points. Carmelo Anthony came up with 25 points, but had too many lapses on the defensive end. It wasn't a fitting ending for the Nuggets or the Denver crowd, which saw their team post its best-ever regular season record and advance farther in the playoffs than they've gone in 24 years. The Nuggets experienced tremendous growth after the trade to acquire Chauncey Billups, and if they keep the team together, they need only to absorb the lessons the Lakers taught them and take a few more steps to truly join the league's elite. There's no next year for L.A., advancing to the 30th NBA Finals in franchise history. Kobe, in his 13th season, knows his personal window is closing. He must win now to cement his legacy, and the rest of the Lakers must surely be hungry to erase the memories of last year's opportunity missed.

Eastern Conference Finals Game 5

LeBron isn't asking for much in terms of help from his teammates. No one other than LeBron had what might be deemed a stellar sort of night Thursday for the Cavs, but it was enough to get by at home for a 112-102 win in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals, cutting Orlando's lead to 3-2. LeBron scored or assisted on 32 straight points in the third and fourth quarters, racking up a triple-double with 37 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists. He was extraordinary, but failed to score 40 points for just the second time in this series. Those two occasions are, not coincidentally, the two games the Cavs have won. LeBron was not alone Thursday, as the man acquired to be LeBron's second-in-command finally played like it. Mo Williams nailed six of nine attempts from behind the arc for 24 points, and his hustle play with the team down by one and 6:09 to go helped turn the game in Cleveland's favor. He hustled after a missed three-pointer, diving out of bounds to save the ball and bouncing it off the leg of Rafer Alston to ensure the Cavs retained possession. Williams then assisted LeBron on a three-point play that put Cleveland in front for good. Daniel Gibson helped seal the victory with eight of his surprising 11 points in the fourth quarter, as he found his missing shot to go 3-for-4 from three-point range. Zydrunas Ilgauskas held his own against Dwight Howard, with 6-for-8 shooting for 16 points and six rebounds. That was all the Cavs needed in a topsy-turvy game that saw Cleveland blow a 22-point lead in the first half, Orlando take a six point lead in the third quarter, and the Cavs wind up pulling away for a double-digit victory. The Cavs emerged shooting 50 percent as a team and, thanks to Williams and Gibson, 50 percent from behind the arc, while the Magic shot just 46 percent from the floor and 32 percent on 25 shots from from three-point range. The Magic failed to take advantage of an edge at the free throw line, making just one more shot on 41 trips to the line compared to 34 attempts for the Cavs. It was an especially long night for Rafer Alston, who followed a career high 26 points in Game 4 with jus three on 1-for-10 shooting Thursday. Rashard Lewis struggled as well, going 4-for-13 for 15 points, but the resurgent Hedo Turkoglu made up for it with 29 points, a playoff career high of his own. Dwight Howard was once more brilliant in the paint, going 8-for-10 for 24 points and 10 rebounds, but again didn't get enough shots to become a dominant force, and fouled out with 2:21 to go. Howard isn't likely to publicly rehash his complaints about a lack of offensive involvement before Game 6 on Saturday, but he would be wise to do so in private. The Magic must feed Howard when he's on his game and others, like Lewis and Alston, are not. It is an ironic juxtaposition of superstars, in which one must become less integral to his team's offense and the other must become more so.

Western Conference Finals Game 5

1. The Lakers had to play better defense and get improved play from Lamar Odom after a 19-point loss in Game 4. Done and done. The Nuggets went 9:53 with just one made field goal in the second half, and Lamar Odom posted 19 points and 14 rebounds as the Lakers pulled away in the fourth quarter Wednesday for a 103-94 victory to take a 3-2 series lead over Denver in the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets led 73-66 after a Dahntay Jones tip-in with 5:11 to play in the third quarter, but it all fell apart for Denver from there. Trevor Ariza blocked Carmelo Anthony's jumper the next time down the floor, and though the Nuggets retained possession, Pau Gasol came up with an errant pass from Chauncey Billups and fed Shannon Brown for a dunk that ignited the Lakers. Gasol came away with yet another bad pass from Billups, Anthony was called for traveling and the Nuggets were caught with a 24-second clock violation as Denver continued to unravel on its next three possessions. A Billups three-pointer gave the Nuggets their last lead at the 2:24 mark of the third quarter, and Denver trailed 89-81 after their next basket, a Linas Kleiza trey with 7:18 left in the fourth quarter. Odom scored eight of his points during Denver's drought, and Brown, another spark plug off the bench, had all six of his points. Kobe had a team-high 22 points, but acknowledged after the game that he consciously tried to play more of a facilitator's role, dishing out eight assists. It worked, just as it did when the Lakers took Game 7 against the Rockets in the conference semifinals. Pau Gasol had 14 points and 10 rebounds, Trevor Ariza put up 12 points, five rebounds and four assists and Derek Fisher poured in 12 points as the Lakers had five players in double-figures. Andrew Bynum looked solid in limited playing time as well, scoring nine points in 19 minutes. The Lakers had an advantage on the interior all night, as Nene was barely a factor with four points and eight rebounds before fouling out. Kenyon Martin was the only post player for Denver who found any sort of success, with 12 points and five rebounds, while Chris Andersen had just two points and eight rebounds instead of his usual energizing performance off the bench. Anthony provided the lion's share of the offense, scoring 31 points, but went just 9-for-23 from the floor. That pales in comparison to the poor shooting of J.R. Smith, who was 1-for-10 from three-point range. Kleiza, who scored seven points in the second half to keep the Nuggets afloat for awhile, was the lone exception to a night of struggles for Denver. The talented Lakers played near their best Wednesday, and it seems the Nuggets can only hope L.A. can be lulled back into its frequent slumbers for two more nights.

Eastern Conference Finals Game 4

It seemed like, as it had all season, that LeBron was destined to come out on top. A phantom foul on Mickael Pietrus as he was guarding LeBron was followed by a no-call on Anderson Varejao as he kept Dwight Howard from the basket at the end of regulation Tuesday, but Howard responded by creating his own fate. He came out and made three dunks to begin overtime, scored 10 of his team-high 27 points in the extra period as Orlando took a 3-1 series lead on Cleveland with a 116-114 victory. Howard's block of LeBron's driving shot with 16 seconds to go was symbolic not just of the moment but the entire series. The Magic's superstar has been maligned during the playoffs for his disappearances at key moments and his complaints about not seeing enough shots, but came through in an overtime that put Orlando a game away from the Finals. Howard's frustrations have been well-documented, and continued as he was called for a technical foul in the third quarter that puts him one technical away from an automatic suspension. He shook it off in overtime, and now it is LeBron who has to wonder what more he has to do. He scored more than 40 points for the third time in the series, pouring in 41, and on all three occasions his team has lost. His teammates showed signs of breaking out of their collective slump, led by Mo Williams, who had 18 points through three quarters. Yet Williams did not score in the final 16 minutes of the game, and Delonte West, the team's third-leading scorer with 17, put up only four of those points in the fourth quarter. The bench broke its string of four straight single-digit scoring performances, but was still outscored 26-14. Pietrus outdid the Cleveland bench all by himself with 17 points, all while drawing the unenviable assignment of guarding LeBron. The five three-pointers Pietrus hit were impressive, but no one had a touch quite as fine as Rafer Alston did, hitting on six of 12 attempts from behind the arc for 26 points, a career playoff high. Alston's unexpected contributions exascerbated Cleveland's troubles on defense. The Magic shot 50 percent from the floor and 17-for-38 on three-point attempts while the Cavs went just 6-for-22 behind the arc. The defense and all-around contributions that made the Cavs so tough all year have deserted them at the worst time. They must perform a spectacular turnaround now to claim a spot in the Finals that seemed just a week ago to have already been theirs.