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Thursday, July 9, 2009

Marion to Mavs in 4-way trade

No deal in the NBA, with its complex salary cap structure, is simple. The four-way trade approved this afternoon is certainly no exception. Shawn Marion was acquired by the Dallas Mavericks in a byzantine arrangement that has assets going between the Mavs, the Raptors, the Magic and the Grizzlies. The core of the deal has Marion heading from Toronto to Dallas in a sign-and-trade move. Kris Humphries and Austrailian centerNathan Jawai goes with Marion, while the Raptors get Antoine Wright and Devean George in return. Hedo Turkoglu's decision to go to Toronto is wrapped up in this, as Toronto gets him as part of a sign-and-trade with Orlando, and the Magic at least receive cash and a trade exception instead of nothing, which they would have gotten if Turkoglu simply signed with the Raptors. The Grizzlies helped facilitate this, sending Greg Buckner to Dallas and receiving Jerry Stackhouse in return along with a 2016 second round pick. The Grizzlies will likely release Stackhouse, meaning they wind up gaining a bit of cap space and little else. Their participation in the deal is by far the most questionable, as though GM Chris Wallace were simply looking for ways to build good will after his gift of Pau Gasol to the Lakers helped L.A. to the championship. The pursuit of Allen Iverson, on top of at all, must leave Grizzlies fans shaking their heads. The Mavs are at the other end of the spectrum. They improve their perimeter defense markedly with Nowitzki around, and if they keep Josh Howard, they'll likely move him to shooting guard to facilitate Marion at small forward and allow Sixth Man of the Year Jason Terry to continue in his bench role. They signed Marcin Gortat and have Jason Kidd coming back, too, so they're clearly looking to win now, a smart move given Nowitzki is in his prime. They probably haven't done enough to put themselves over the top, but they've gotten a lot closer. The Raptors are retooling after last season's debacle, and trying to show Chris Bosh that they're committed to winning. They didn't have any intention of signing Marion after they agreed to a deal with Turkoglu, so that they receive a couple of veterans like Wright and George makes this trade a winner for them. Wright can move into the starting shooting guard position vacated by Anthony Parker, who is headed to the Cavs. The criticism for Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo should come not for his willingness to get involved in deal so much as the decision to dump Marion and pick up Turkoglu in the first place. The notion that Turkoglu is that much of an upgrade over Marion is not a strong one, and what the Raptors gain in outside shooting and a few more points per game, they lose in on the glass, where Marion was 3.1 rebounds a night better than Turkoglu. Bosh, who averaged 10 boards a night, almost twice as many as the next best returning Raptor, will have to take a leap and rebound a lot like Turkoglu's old teammate Dwight Howard, who averaged 13.9 a game last year.

Friday, July 3, 2009

Lakers make faustian deal for Artest

1. The Lakers clearly have a win-now mentality, and with Kobe preparing for his 31st birthday next month, that makes sense. The move to acquire 29-year-old Ron Artest and let 24-year-old Trevor Ariza go would seem to support that theory, but it's only a marginal upgrade that could have a much greater long-term cost. Ariza raised his game significantly in the playoffs, justifying his midseason insertion into the starting lineup with clutch play and 11.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game in the postseason. Artest's numbers were better, with 15.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists a night during the playoffs, but it would be hard to argue the former Defensive Player of the Year was any more effective at stopping people than Ariza. It's even harder to make a case that Artest is a better guy to have around the locker room, given his well-documented antics. He's never played with a superstar like Kobe before, and hasn't been surrounded by quite as much talent either. Ariza meshed quite effectively as a role player, and it remains to be seen whether Artest can do half as well as someone who is no more than a third offensive option behind Kobe and Pau Gasol. The Lakers will be paying Artest about the same amount of money Ariza is getting from the Rockets, but Artest gets three years instead of five on his contract. It makes little sense why Mitch Kupchak and the L.A. braintrust would balk at just two more years for someone who could have been a cornerstone for the next few years and the transition into the post-Kobe era. The next five years with Ariza could have at least ensured a 20-something would occupy one starting wing spot while Kobe aged. Artest turns 30 in November and will be entering his 11th NBA season. The only party that came out looking worse than the Lakers was Ariza himself, who goes from the champions of the league to a team that may just have lost Yao for good and is still awaiting Tracy McGrady's return from microfracture knee surgery. It hardly seems worth it, for either Ariza or the Lakers, given the difference of two years that appeared to be all that stood in the way of a better situation for both.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Three random observations ...

... about the NBA:

1. It was odd that the Thunder passed up Ricky Rubio, given that he is the pure point guard they lack. It was odder still that the Kings didn't take him, either. Rubio fell into the lap of the Minnesota Timberwolves at the fifth pick in Thursday's 2009 NBA Draft, and in a night that was heavy with point guards, the Wolves got quality and quantity. Rubio, an 18-year-old whose passing skills have already been compared to those of the all-time greats, has experience as a professional in his native Spain and at the Olympic level with the Spanish national team, the silver medalists in 2008. The Thunder, and especially the Kings, will regret missing out on him. James Harden, only 19, is a legitimate top four selection, so Oklahoma City is at least getting a player of decent value out of the No. 3 pick. Tyreke Evans is talented, but there are questions about his shooting and athleticism, which doesn't bode well for a two-guard. He plays the same position as Kevin Martin, the best player on the Sacramento roster. The move just doesn't make sense. The Wolves have quite a pair in Rubio and Al Jefferson, but they inexplicably took Jonny Flynn, another point guard, with the sixth pick. GM David Kahn is promoting the idea that the two could play together, but he wouldn't compromise his trade leverage by announcing that one or both is available. The truth is likely that one of them can be had. The Wolves turned heads again when they selected Ty Lawson, yet another point guard, at No. 18, but they quickly traded him to Denver for future considerations.

2. The New York fans were sorely disappointed when Stephen Curry was taken by the Warriors at No. 7, one pick before the Knicks could have nabbed him. Curry, with his ability to shoot and finish, would no doubt have been fun to watch Mike D'Antoni's system, but New York need not shed a tear. Jordan Hill may actually be an even better fit. He is a 6-10 power forward who can rebound and run the floor, which makes for a prototypical D'Antoni center. The Knicks have David Lee at center, too, but often teamed him with Jared Jeffries, a lithe power forward over whom Hill is a significant improvement. Lee is a restricted free agent, so the Knicks have the option now to not match another team's long-term offer if they so desire, opening up even more cap space for 2010. Hill has shown continual improvement in his rebounding numbers while at college, winding up at an average of 11 per game this past season at Arizona, and if that trend continues in the pros, the Knicks may have come up with a steal.

3. The news Thursday was not all about the draft. The Magic acquired Vince Carter, along with second-year power forward Ryan Anderson, for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Tony Battie. It's a surprising move, since it was clear the formula Orlando had this past season worked, at least well enough to get the team to the Finals. Magic GM Otis Smith, to his credit, wants more. Yet it's not clear whether the Magic really got any better. They diversified their offense with a player who can penetrate, create his own shot and gave themselves another ballhandler, all of which was necessary. He's still capable of scoring 20 points a game, dishing out close to five assists and grabbing about five rebounds, but Carter's numbers were down across the board this past year, when he turned 32. It's likely he'll continue his decline this year, but even a diminished Carter may be better than what the Magic had. The tough part of this trade for the Magic is having to give up Lee, an impressive rookie whose game is only going to get better, instead of worse. Orlando may find out they would have been better off keeping him, but they instead decided to go with Carter, whose talents are far more of a known quantity. Anderson's presence in the trade may have been enough to quell Smith's concerns, since like Lee, he seems poised for improvement after a promising rookie year. His 6-foot-10, 240 pounds frame, 4,7 rebounds in 20 minutes a night and 36.5 percent three-point shooting make him a perfect backup for Rashard Lewis. The Nets probably aren't ecstatic about giving him up, especially since they clearly have an eye on the future. The rest of the trade sets up New Jersey quite well for the summer of 2010. Alston and Battie are contracts that expire after next season, when they will look to combine a young nucleus of Devin Harris, Lee and Brook Lopez with cap space to go after a premier free agent class.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Three random observations ...

... about the NBA:

1. Shaq is finally headed to Cleveland. The Cavs are acquiring him for the 46th pick in Thursday's draft plus Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic, two players the Suns will be more easily be able to move off their books. The deal, which this blog first discussed in February, gives LeBron his first Hall of Fame-caliber teammate, albeit one in the twilight of his career. Shaq will turn 38 next March, but his 17.8 points per game and 8.4 rebounds from last season represented a renaissance that included a deserving selection to the All-Star Game, where he split MVP honors with Kobe. Now, Shaq will look to one-up Kobe with another NBA title. It's clear Cleveland wants to win this season, while LeBron is still under contract. There's no other reason to acquire a center in his late 30s with a $21 million salary. The move shores up Cleveland's frontline, which was overmatched by Orlando's athleticism and diversity of skill in the Eastern Conference Finals. It provides LeBron with the kind of playoff-tested sidekick that he sorely missed in that Orlando series, as long as Shaq remains healthy and in good playing shape. Shaq's continued production at a high-level is a risky proposition, but the Cavs must go all-in this year. It's a gamble worth taking. The move makes sense for the Suns, too, who were going nowhere. It will be painful for Phoenix to lose Shaq, Steve Nash, who is sure to follow, and other veterans like Amare Stoudemire and Grant Hill, but it's clear they were no longer close to being title contenders after missing the playoffs this year. Now, they can begin to rebuild.

2. The Spurs, another perenial contender that took a step back this past season, found a way to move back into the picture. The acquisition of Richard Jefferson for Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas gives the Spurs the kind of athletic wing player they've long lacked to put along side Manu Ginobili in crunch time. Jefferson, 29, revitalizes the aging Spurs, who get Ginobili back from the ankle injury that prematurely ended his season this year. Jefferson averaged 19.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists last year, and has experience as a contributing member of a contending team with New Jersey in the first few years of his career. It's another shrewd move by general manager R.C. Buford, and while it's far from a panacea for the Spurs, who must be wary of the long-term health of Ginobili and Tim Duncan, it's likely the best move they could have made this offseason. The trade is a salary dump for Milwaukee, a franchise that continues to search for answers, having failed to win more than 42 games for eight straight seasons after making the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001.

3. I hesitate to do mock drafts with as many trades and potential deals affecting the draft order as we've seen this year, but here's a stab at it. A lot of speculation holds that Ricky Rubio, the 18-year-old Spanish point guard phenom, will drop after a poor workout with Sacramento. Don't buy it. Rubio, competing in last year's Olympics, has already shown he can compete at a high level with world-class competition. He shouldn't fall out of the top four, and if he does, a team or two will look back on this draft with a great deal of regret.

1. L.A. Clippers: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
2. Memphis: Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut
3. Oklahoma City: Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain
4. Sacramento: James Harden, G, Arizona State
5. Minnesota: Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona
6. Minnesota: Stephen Curry, PG, Davidson
7. Golden State: Demar Derozan, SG/SF, Southern Cal
8. New York: Jonny Flynn, PG, Syracuse
9. Toronto: Tyreke Evans, G, Memphis
10. Milwaukee: Jrue Holiday, G, UCLA

Update: Golden State appears to be sending Jamal Crawford to the Hawks for point guards Acie Law and Speedy Claxton, so I'm now projecting the Warriors will take Demar Derozan instead of Jonny Flynn, whom I see getting scooped up by the Knicks.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

NBA Finals, Game 5

Say what you will about Kobe, but nobody wanted it more this season. Kobe led the Lakers to a title without Shaquille O'Neal for the first time in his fifth try without his former Hall of Fame teammate, furthering his position among the All-Time greats Sunday after a 99-86 victory to seal the NBA championship. Kobe combined with Lamar Odom, coincidentally one of the players acquired in the trade that sent Shaq away, to take the heart out of the Orlando Magic, who never challenged after a 16-0 L.A. run in the second quarter. Kobe scored 30 points, had six rebounds and dished out five assists, right on his numbers for the playoffs, and won his first Bill Russell Finals MVP award. Odom had 17 points, including three from three-point range, and pulled down 10 rebounds that were key to L.A.'s 47-36 advantage on the boards. Odom in essence canceled out Rashard Lewis, who had 18 points and 10 rebounds. The problem for Orlando is that Lewis was their most prolific contributor Sunday. Dwight Howard was held almost completely in check, scoring only 11 points to go with 10 rebounds and three blocks. The Magic shot just 8-for-27 from behind the arc, while the Lakers were 8-for-16 and made 11 more free throws as well. The game simply wasn't competitive once Trevor Ariza, who scored 11 of his 15 points during a four-minute stretch in the second quarter, heated up after a confrontation with Hedo Turkoglu. The two were jawing near the Orlando bench, and both were hit with technical fouls with 5:43 to go until halftime. The Magic were ahead 40-39 at that point, but Ariza nailed a pair of 26-foot three-pointers, made a layup, a 15-footer and a free throw, and by the end of the half the Lakers had a 10-point lead. Ariza used the series to deepen the Magic's lament over trading him away last season for Mo Evans and Brian Cook. The Lakers got Pau Gasol in another lopsided deal last year, and he continued to pay dividends in the clinching game Sunday, delivering 14 points and a game-high 15 rebounds. The Lakers haven't lost three in a row since acquiring Gasol, a staggering achievement that underscores the hole the Magic were in, trailing 3 games to 1 and needing to win three straight. Orlando was nonetheless one Courtney Lee shot in Game 2 and one Dwight Howard free throw in Game 4 from a much different series. The Finals, apart from Sunday and Game 1, were far from a victory lap for the Lakers. It's not clear, given how close Orlando came, and the fact the Cavs saved their worst games for last, that the best team won. It is certain that these Lakers are a championship-caliber club, and that coach Phil Jackson should be recognized as the gold standard among NBA bosses. His record of 10 titles, more than anyone not just in the NBA but in the NFL or Major League Baseball as well, will likely stand forever. He was fortunate, indeed, to lead teams with the best players of their time, like Jordan, Shaq and Kobe, but plenty of coaches have failed to make the most of their talent. A few others have taken them to the top of the mountain once or twice, but never again. Jackson has proven again and again that his success, and the success of his teams, is no fluke.

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Thanks for reading this year. It's been a fun learning experience and I intend to keep this going. This is a constantly evolving process, so I'm not sure how the blog will look next year, but it will be here. Keep an eye out for draft coverage and analysis of free agent signings and trades in the offseason. It should be interesting, with all sorts of teams looking to dump salary. And, in case you're wondering, my predictions, so solid during the first two rounds of the playoffs, were off the mark in the last two. I took the Cavs in five games in the Eastern Conference Finals, but wound up one of many who were caught off guard by the Magic, who won in six. I was much closer in the Western Conference Finals, where I had the Lakers winning in 7. They took care of Denver in six. I had the right team in the Finals, but I thought it would be a seven-game series instead of five. How was I supposed to know Dwight Howard would miss two free throws and Jameer Nelson would completely forget Derek Fisher was one of the all-time great clutch three-point shooters?

Friday, June 12, 2009

NBA Finals Game 4

The Orlando Magic could easily be up 3-1 in the NBA Finals. They're down 3-1 instead. The Magic were up by a dozen at halftime Thursday, and held a five-point lead with as few as 31 seconds to go, but shockingly poor defense and two missed free throws by Dwight Howard allowed the Lakers to force overtime, where they pulled away for a 99-91 victory. Game 4 was a dramatic collapse that costs Orlando any reasonable shot it might have had and presents the Lakers with a clear shot at the championship. The Magic built an 87-82 lead on a three-pointer and a tough runner by Hedo Turkoglu, who hit more than his share of difficult shots en route to a team-high 25 points. Turkoglu never made another basket. Rashard Lewis missed a 16-footer with 39 seconds to go, and Derek Fisher, whose greatest contribution to the game was yet to come, grabbed the rebound, and started a fast break that ended with Kobe finding a hustling Pau Gasol for an uncontested dunk. That cut the lead to three, but the Magic were able to get the ball to their best player, Dwight Howard, underneath, where three defenders converged upon him and sent him to the line with 10.4 seconds left. The Magic shot just 60 percent from the line all night, but either one of Howard's free throws would have in essence sealed the game for the Magic. Howard, who was a woeful 6-for-14 from the stripe, missed them both. Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy elected not to foul, and allow the Lakers to shoot for three-pointer if they wanted. Van Gundy didn't tell Jameer Nelson to give his man ample room to take the trey, but that's exactly what Nelson did, laying off of Fisher as the veteran sharpshooter added one more clutch playoff three-pointer to his resume. The stunned Magic had all sorts of trouble getting the ball inbounds for an answer with 4.6 remaining, and a quick leaner by Mickael Pietrus went array as the buzzer sounded. Orlando continued to look rattled in the overtime, scoring only three points, but had the game tied in the final minute. Fisher once more delivered a daggar, with another three-pointer that gave the Lakers a 94-91 lead with 31 seconds to go. Turkoglu missed a three-pointer on the other end, and Gasol got free for another dunk that served as exclamation point to the L.A. victory. The words preceding the punctuation would read, "Thank You," for 19 turnovers and 15 missed free throws from the Magic. The Lakers didn't fail to take advantage of the opportunities laid at their feet, and again were led by the brilliance of Kobe, who had 32 points, eight assists and seven rebounds. Gasol had 16 points and 10 rebounds, and Trevor Ariza, who scored all of his points in the second half, put up 16 points and nine rebounds. None of it would have gone toward a win if the Magic had not allowed it to happen.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

NBA Finals Game 3

Kobe came out Tuesday determined to close the door on any chance he would not cement his legacy with a championship this year. He finished with the kind of performance that raises legitimate doubts about his championship mettle and the outcome of the series with Orlando. The Magic cut the L.A. lead to 2-1, prevailing 108-104 in a game the Lakers could have won if Kobe had not missed 10 of his last 13 shots from the floor, five of his last eight free throws, and lost the ball when Dwight Howard poked it away in the final minute. The stretch run was the complete opposite of his first quarter, when Kobe had 17 points and either scored or assisted on all but four L.A. baskets. He was a major reason why the Lakers were able to stick around despite 75 percent shooting in the first half for the Magic, a phenomenal display that set an all-time NBA Finals record for field goal percentage in a half. Kobe's totals of 31 points and eight assists don't suggest any sort of failure, but the lofty standard to which he is aspiring to be held demands more than just a prolific statistical showing. Too many misses and mistakes prevented his team from sealing victory after erasing what had been a nine-point deficit with 7:55 to go. Kobe missed from close range with 3:33 left, was off on a 3-pointer with 2:02 on the clock, clanked a free throw with 59 seconds to go, lost the ball with 28 seconds remaining and missed two three-pointers on the final L.A. possession. Those troubles obscure a scintillating 63 percent shooting performance by the Magic and a 51 percent shooting night for the Lakers that was nearly enough to put them over the top. Rafer Alston had a fearless performance after scoring a total of 10 points in the first two games, going 8-for-12 for 20 points. Rashard Lewis shot 3-for-6 on his three-pointers, including a pair of treys at the end of the first half that erased the last lead for the Lakers, and went 8-for-14 overall to score 21 points. Howard tied Lewis for the team high in points, going 11-for-16 at the line and 5-for-6 from the floor. Hedo Turkoglu was 7-for-12 for 18 points on an all-around night, leading the team with seven assists and grabbing six rebounds as well. Mickael Pietrus came off the bench to score 18 as well and, once in the game, was able to slow Kobe, who was far and away the focus of L.A.'s offense. His 11-for-25 performance from the floor came on more than twice as many shots as any other Laker, though his teammates made the most of their limited opportunities. Pau Gasol was 9-for-11 for 23 points, and Lamar Odom and Jordan Farmar had identical 4-for-6, 11-point stat lines off the bench. Trevor Ariza struggled with his shot thanks to Turkoglu's defense, but managed 13 points and seven rebounds. Derek Fisher went 4-for-9 for nine points, including a wide open three-pointer he canned to pull the Lakers within two points at the 5:25 mark of the fourth quarter. The Lakers tied the game on a pair of Gasol free throws with 2:41 to play, but Pietrus finished off a Turkoglu miss with a resounding dunk that gave the Magic the lead for good. The Magic are a couple of Courtney Lee misses in Game 2 away from enjoying a lead in the series, as well. Kobe still has a ways to go before he wins his first NBA crown without Shaq, and as the unquestioned best player on his team. The question for the rest of the series, much as it was coming into the Finals, is whether he possesses that extra gear necessary to carry a team the way Jordan, Russell, Bird and select few others did. If he does, he will ascend into their ranks. If he plays the way he did in the second half of Game 3, he won't.